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Latest verdicts
First verdict: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 — the Warsh's Unanimity Cracks: An October FOMC Dissent gets graded first. Your picks get settled then.
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Scenario board
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Sports · Quick Call
World Series Goes Six or More
LOCKED RECORD · DESK CALL
The 2026 World Series goes at least six games.
Milwaukee is in — the Brewers swept Los Angeles in the NLCS to take the National League pennant. The American League champion is set by Oct 20; a clearly labeled matchup addendum follows by Oct 21 and never changes this call's terms. Picks close Fri Oct 23 at 12:00pm ET, before Game 1's first pitch.
Confidence: 55% · Verdict: Nov 1, 2026 · 12:00 PM ET · Source: FOX Sports World Series schedule/results (broadcast record) · Picks close Oct 23, 12:00 PM ET
HOW THIS CALL WILL BE GRADED ON NOV 1
ACCURATE · series games ≥ 6WRONG · otherwise
The rule — grades ACCURATE or WRONG
ACCURATE
series games ≥ 6
The 2026 World Series lasted at least six games.
WRONG
Otherwise
The 2026 World Series ended in five games or fewer.
Graded on first-published values only — revisions don't count.
Source & extraction
FOX Sports World Series schedule/results (broadcast record)
Grade from the final length of the 2026 World Series as listed on the FOX Sports schedule/results record: count the total games played in the best-of-seven series (scheduled: Game 1 Fri Oct 23, Game 2 Oct 24, Game 3 Oct 26, Game 4 Oct 27, Game 5 Oct 28 if necessary, Game 6 Oct 30 if necessary, Game 7 Oct 31 if necessary). ACCURATE if the series lasts six or more games. If weather postpones the final game, the verdict read follows the actual final game.
Interactive voting and the What-If Outcome Simulator require JavaScript. The Desk's official call and grading rules above are complete.
The desk's call: The desk makes no scenario claim here — the call stands or falls on the final series length.
What the desk pre-computed
Frozen scenario outcomes — no JavaScript needed.
Scenario
Inputs
Result
Six games
6 games
ACCURATE
Full seven
7 games
ACCURATE
Five and done
5 games
WRONG
Markets & Rates · Quick Call
Warsh's Unanimity Cracks: An October FOMC Dissent
LOCKED RECORD · DESK CALL
At least one voting FOMC member dissents at the October 28 rate decision.
A “dissent” is a voting FOMC member formally voting against the decision — the statement names them in its “Voting against” paragraph. Any dissent counts, whether the member wanted a hike, a hold, or a cut.
A governance call, not a rates call: the direction of the decision does not matter — only whether the vote is unanimous. Picks close Wed Oct 28 at 1:55pm ET, five minutes before the statement.
Confidence: 60% · Verdict: Oct 28, 2026 · 2:00 PM ET · Source: Federal Reserve FOMC statement (Oct 28, 2026) · Picks close Oct 28, 1:55 PM ET
HOW THIS CALL WILL BE GRADED ON OCT 28
ACCURATE · dissent count ≥ 1WRONG · otherwise
The rule — grades ACCURATE or WRONG
ACCURATE
dissent count ≥ 1
At least one voting FOMC member dissented at the Oct 28 decision.
WRONG
Otherwise
The Oct 28 FOMC decision was unanimous.
Graded on first-published values only — revisions don't count.
Source & extraction
Federal Reserve FOMC statement (Oct 28, 2026)
Grade from the Federal Open Market Committee statement for the Oct 27–28, 2026 meeting, released Wed Oct 28, 2026 at 2:00pm ET. The call is ACCURATE if the statement's vote paragraph ('Voting against the monetary policy action were…') names at least one voting member dissenting in either direction. The grade uses the statement only: the meeting minutes, published later, never alter the grade. Context: the Sep 16, 2026 decision was unanimous (12–0); the July 2026 vote was 9–3.
Interactive voting and the What-If Outcome Simulator require JavaScript. The Desk's official call and grading rules above are complete.
The desk's call: The desk makes no scenario claim here — the call stands or falls on the statement's vote paragraph.
What the desk pre-computed
Frozen scenario outcomes — no JavaScript needed.
Scenario
Inputs
Result
One dissenter
1 dissent
ACCURATE
July-style split
3 dissents
ACCURATE
Unanimous
0 dissents — unanimous
WRONG
Tech Earnings · Quick take
The AAPL Earnings Move: Ternus's Debut
LOCKED RECORD · DESK CALL
AAPL moves more than ±3% on its Q4 print (Mon Nov 2, after close).
“Adjusted close” is the closing price adjusted for dividends and splits, so the graded move reflects the stock’s real change in value — not a payout or a split.
Picks close Mon Nov 2 at 4:00pm ET — at the close, because the graded move is measured from that close: |AdjClose Tue Nov 3 − AdjClose Mon Nov 2| / AdjClose Mon Nov 2, on adjusted closes (FMP via Achilles BigQuery). Nov 3 is US Election Day; the exchanges run a full regular session that day, and this verdict reads off that close at 4:00pm ET. It is John Ternus's first earnings call as CEO, on a quarter that includes launch-week iPhone 18 Pro sales.
Desk baseline: ±3.5% · Confidence: 50% · Verdict: Nov 3, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET · Source: FMP via Achilles BigQuery (adjusted closes, same convention as Board #01's LULU call) · Picks close Nov 2, 4:00 PM ET
AAPL moved more than ±3% from the Nov 2 close to the Nov 3 close.
PARTIAL
abs move ≥ 2.0
AAPL moved between ±2% and ±3% after the print.
WRONG
Otherwise
AAPL moved less than ±2% after the print.
Graded on first-published values only — revisions don't count.
Source & extraction
FMP via Achilles BigQuery (adjusted closes, same convention as Board #01's LULU call)
AAPL reports fiscal Q4 2026 (quarter ended Sep 26, 2026) after the close on Mon Nov 2, 2026. Graded move = |adjusted close Tue Nov 3, 2026 − adjusted close Mon Nov 2, 2026| / adjusted close Mon Nov 2, 2026 × 100, using split- and dividend-adjusted closes (FMP data via Achilles BigQuery). Base rate at seal: 10 of AAPL's last 20 quarterly prints (50%) moved more than ±3% close-to-close after the print (median ±2.9%); the desk's original ±4% line was re-set to ±3% before sealing because only 30% of the last 20 prints cleared ±4%. Desk confidence 0.50 is that base rate itself — no event adjustment was taken, because the last 8 prints and the last 5 fiscal-Q4 prints both ran cooler than the 20-print window. If Apple reschedules the print, the verdict follows the actual print date and picks lock at the earlier of the sealed close time or the actual release.
Interactive voting and the What-If Outcome Simulator require JavaScript. The Desk's official call and grading rules above are complete.
The desk's call: Desk scenario: AAPL moves ±3.5% on the print — a Ternus-debut, launch-quarter surprise modestly above the 20-print median move of ±2.9%. Under the frozen rule this grades ACCURATE.
What the desk pre-computed
Frozen scenario outcomes — no JavaScript needed.
Scenario
Inputs
Result
Desk scenario
Move ±3.5%
ACCURATE
Base-rate median
Move ±2.9%
PARTIAL
Cool recent-style print
Move ±1.9%
WRONG
Big debut surprise
Move ±7.4%
ACCURATE
Labor Market · Interactive scenario
October Hiring Rebounds Past 100K
LOCKED RECORD · DESK CALL
October payrolls add 100k+ while unemployment holds at or below 4.3%.
Different call from Board #01's 'Hiring, Not Firing' — that one grades on Jan 8, 2027 and turns on the layoff-rate leg. This call leads with the unemployment leg: U-3 holds at or below 4.3% while October payrolls reach 100k+. Picks close Fri Nov 6 at 8:25am ET, five minutes before the release — the same morning Board #01's Hiring picks close (its verdict is Jan 8).
Desk baseline: 125k · Confidence: 60% · Verdict: Nov 6, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET · Source: BLS Employment Situation (first-published values) · Picks close Nov 6, 8:25 AM ET
HOW THIS CALL WILL BE GRADED ON NOV 6
ACCURATE · payroll oct ≥ 100 & unemployment rate ≤ 4.3PARTIAL · payroll oct 25–100 & unemployment rate 4.3–4.4WRONG · otherwise
The rule — grades ACCURATE, PARTIAL, or WRONG
ACCURATE
payroll oct ≥ 100 AND unemployment rate ≤ 4.3
October payrolls added at least 100k and unemployment held at or below 4.3%.
PARTIAL
payroll oct ≥ 25 AND unemployment rate ≤ 4.4
Payrolls grew at least 25k with unemployment at or below 4.4%, but the full rebound bar was not met.
WRONG
Otherwise
Outside the partial band: payrolls under 25k or unemployment above 4.4%.
Graded on first-published values only — revisions don't count.
Source & extraction
BLS Employment Situation (first-published values)
Use the first-published Employment Situation for October 2026 (Fri Nov 6, 2026, 8:30am ET): total nonfarm payroll change (thousands, seasonally adjusted) and the U-3 unemployment rate (percent, seasonally adjusted). Grade on first-published values only; later revisions never change the grade. Line-setting disclosure: no published economist consensus for October existed at seal time; the 100k line is set against BLS anchors — September 2026 printed +29k, the prior-12-month average gain is +45k, and September's consensus was ~90k. If BLS postpones the release, the graded window follows the actual rescheduled release; an outright cancellation voids the call publicly.
Interactive voting and the What-If Outcome Simulator require JavaScript. The Desk's official call and grading rules above are complete.
The desk's call: Desk scenario: October payrolls +125k; unemployment rate 4.2%. Under the frozen rule this grades ACCURATE.
Each call is a frozen record: a one-sentence claim, a confidence level, a registered source with a written extraction rule, and a threshold rule. You move the assumptions; the engine shows the hypothetical grade for your scenario. Saving a call records your full receipt (your pick, slider assumptions, timestamp, and rubric hash) locally in your browser, and sends a single anonymous +1 (Agree or Disagree) to the public tally.
Official verdicts are computed by the same frozen function (gradeOfficialResult in verdict.js) on first-published values from the registered source. Revised prints do not alter a grade. PARTIAL means exactly one thing: direction right, required magnitude not met.
Integrity & sign-off
Call authors do not sign off their own grading. Sealed by the desk in declared single-operator mode.
Note on signers: Board #01 stated a second signer would be named before Board #02. Board #02 is sealed in declared single-operator mode. We will not add a pro-forma signature before a full review workflow is in place; second-signer onboarding is deferred to Board #03.
Corrections
Corrections rerun the frozen function on corrected inputs; the function is never rewritten. Corrections appear as visible errata, not silent edits.
Sealed after publication. Published 2026-10-18T00:00:00-04:00; seal recorded 2026-10-16T23:25:37+00:00. The seal is a SHA-256 hash of this board's call configuration plus the verdict engine, recorded at seal time. The same frozen engine grades the official outcomes, and anyone can verify the current files match the sealed hash. The seal does not by itself prove the rules were unchanged between publication and sealing.
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